Granular by design.
Inspect 3,102 released counties, their economic structure, modeled expectations, and the places that diverge.
COUNTY-LEVEL RESOLUTIONECONOMIC CONTEXT. LOCAL RESOLUTION.
National change
starts locally.
See how economic pressure, community structure, and political movement intersect—county by county.
Explore the intelligence ↗+ A more detailed view of what moves beneath the headline.
LOCAL SIGNAL / 027A county breaks from the pattern.Observed result → modeled context
3,102audited 2020 counties
99.68%fixed county coverage
153.7Mtwo-party votes released
0invented allocations
01THE INTELLIGENCE
County detail changes
the national picture.
Statewide averages conceal the places where pressure is building, coalitions are moving, and familiar relationships are breaking down.
County Economic Intelligence connects audited election outcomes to local economic and demographic context—without disguising gaps as certainty.
Context, not correlation.
Move from a result to the conditions around it: education, poverty, unemployment, age, and population structure.
LOCAL ECONOMIC CONTEXTAuditable by default.
Every release carries an evidence boundary. Held data stays visible as a limitation, never silently filled.
EXPLICIT EVIDENCE GATES02THE FIELD
Find the counties
that break pattern.
The model establishes context. The residual—the distance between expectation and result—shows where the local story deserves another look.
Enter the county explorer ↗MODEL RESIDUAL2020 / CROSS-SECTION
±4.78county MAE
percentage points
percentage points
Same-year interpolation. Useful for pattern detection—not a forecast.
03THE STANDARD
More than a signal.
A defensible one.
Eight historical state-years remain held because the public evidence cannot support a county allocation. Ten 2020 geography rows remain excluded.
That restraint is part of the product. Strategic intelligence is stronger when its limits are visible.
Examine the evidence standard ↗